Kerala elections 2026: Malabar emerges as crucial battleground for LDF, UDF

In the complex calculus of Kerala politics, the road to the Secretariat has often run through Malabar. For decades, power alternated predictably between the two fronts, until LDF broke that pattern in 2021 by securing a historic second consecutive term, powered largely by sweeping gains in northern districts such as Kozhikode and Kannur. Congress, UDF’s lead party, was reduced to just five seats across the five Malabar districts.The political stakes in the region are therefore enormous. Malabar, comprising Kasaragod, Kannur, Wayanad, Kozhikode and Malappuram, accounts for 48 of the 140 assembly seats. UDF currently holds 20 of these, including 14 represented by the IUML. For the opposition to return to power, a significant improvement in this belt is not optional, it is essential. For Congress specifically, the challenge is sharper: Rather than leaning on IUML’s traditional strength, the party must substantially improve its own tally from the modest five seats it holds. UDF’s optimism is rooted in recent electoral momentum. In both the 2024 general elections and the 2025 local body polls, the opposition front registered a notable surge across Malabar, breaching several long-standing Left bastions. The gains were attributed to minority consolidation and anti-incumbency sentiment against the state govt. Although CPM subsequently held anti-war rallies and took other steps to counter perceptions of majoritarian leanings, UDF believes minority consolidation could again tilt the balance in its favour.Recent electoral trends in Kozhikode illustrate the shifting ground. Despite winning 11 of the district’s 13 assembly seats in 2021, LDF failed to lead in a single assembly segment during the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The decline continued in 2025, when LDF lost the Kozhikode district panchayat for the first time, with UDF capturing 39 of the district’s 70 grama panchayats. Yet a significant challenge persists, Congress failed to elect even a single MLA since 2001. In Malappuram, IUML is targeting a near-total sweep, buoyed by winning 117 of the district’s 122 local bodies.In Kannur, CPM’s ideological heartland, UDF holds just two seats but is eyeing constituencies including Kannur and Azhikode. The opposition also senses an opportunity in reported undercurrents of discontent among CPM cadres, particularly in Thaliparamba.As Kerala heads towards another electoral contest, Malabar once again appears poised to play a decisive role — determining whether the LDF can hold its ground in its northern strongholds or whether the UDF can convert recent momentum into a broader electoral comeback.